CLICCS researches which factors make a realistic climate future possible
How plausible is the climate reversal?
How does the climate change our society – and how does society in turn shape the climate? The Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) at the University of Hamburg is investigating this question. The research team is investigating which social developments are necessary to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time adapt to climate change in the long term.
“The scientific basis of climate change is largely clear, but in order to understand the prerequisites for climate change, we need a comprehensive picture,” says Anita Engels, Professor of Sociology at the Cluster of Excellence. Accordingly, the researchers combine climate calculations with social and economic sciences. The results: “Many things are possible. But not everything is plausible.”
What can realistically be expected?
Possible and plausible developments make the difference when it comes to the question of what climate futures we could be facing. This is where the CLICCS team makes a difference: Possible futures are theoretically conceivable – plausible ones, however, result from today's social, political and economic conditions. “We like to translate that as: What can realistically be expected?” says Engels.
CLICCS has analysed ten key social processes – such as climate policy, consumer trends, corporate strategies, financial flows, social movements and climate complaints. Based on these analyses, the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024 – written by over 70 researchers – provides a sober assessment: A complete shift away from fossil fuels by 2050 is currently not plausible. As Engels summarises it: “Based on everything we know about social change and what we observe empirically, it is not realistic to expect that the Paris climate targets will be achieved.”
Key social processes as the basis for change
Some key processes support change (for example, transnational cooperation, climate action, social movements and knowledge production), but none alone is sufficient. Three important factors – consumer behaviour, corporate strategies and the recently weakening trend towards divestment (withdrawal of capital from fossil fuel industries) – are currently acting as a brake on complete decarbonisation by 2050.
In order to assess how realistic deep decarbonisation is, CLICCS examines key social processes in detail. “Just a few years ago, it looked like divestment was really picking up speed. But many investors are now backing out again,” explains Engels. “Large companies say quite openly: We make the highest profits from fossil fuels. Why should we change that?”
Economy and politics in transition
A key finding of the research: Economic structures and political conditions change only slowly.
Anita Engels is professor for Sociology, especially Globalisation, Environment and Society at the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on the role of companies in climate change, and on the local governance level, including real world labs and public and stakeholder participation.
Photo: S. Engels
“Production, consumption and financing are strongly geared towards growth and fossil fuels,” says Engels. Companies usually respond to clear and reliable laws – but this stability is often lacking. “This also means there is a lack of confidence that climate protection really matters in the long term.” Consumption is socially secured: If you can buy, you can consume. “This is why product design in particular needs to change: more durable, more climate-friendly, less dependent on fossil fuels.”
New laws, court rulings and climate protests are constantly creating momentum. But overall, the change remains too weak to trigger the necessary major transformation.
Participation and climate activism under pressure
However, the participation of society is crucial for a successful climate transition – but it is precisely society that is under increasing pressure. “Climate movements, whose commitment actually helps to build political pressure for more climate protection, are themselves increasingly coming under pressure,” explains Engels. “Some activists are criminalised, and in other countries even threatened or killed.”
The researchers have observed that climate protection in Germany is implemented at regional and local level in particular. “That's why it's important to actively involve citizens. If climate-friendly mobility is to be promoted or redesigned in a neighbourhood, this often means far-reaching changes. A government cannot simply impose such measures from above.” Procedures are needed that allow new approaches to be trialled on a small scale – for example on a street-by-street basis – and in which local people are involved in a significant way.